Federal Election Polls Canada: Latest Nanos & Ipsos

When the year opened, the Conservatives held a seemingly insurmountable 27-point lead over the Liberals. Six months later, the race has flipped dramatically — and Canadians are watching the numbers tighten by the day. This tracking piece pulls together the latest federal poll standings from Nanos, Ipsos, and aggregator trackers ahead of the April 27, 2025 vote.

Next Election: April 27, 2025 · Key Pollsters: Nanos, Ipsos, CBC Poll Tracker · Polling Period: Post-2021 to 2025 · Projections Site: 338Canada · 46th Election Polls: Wikipedia tracked

Nanos Poll Canada Today

Latest Nanos Results

Nanos Research daily tracking for CTV and the Globe and Mail has served as the most frequently updated federal pulse. The final tracking window ending April 26, 2025 showed the Liberal Party at 43.0% support among decided voters, with the Conservatives at 38.9% — a 4.1-point margin (Nanos Research). Less than two weeks earlier, on April 15, the Liberal lead had stretched to 7.4 points. By April 20, that advantage had already compressed to 7.4 points before tightening further through late April (Wikipedia, aggregates all polls with dates and leads).

The rolling telephone tracking — a methodology Nanos has used throughout the campaign — captures daily shifts in voter sentiment. The most recent Nanos daily tracking for April 27 showed LPC 42.6% versus CPC 39.9%, with the lead having fallen to just 2.7 points. The sample of 863 respondents reflects the compressed timeline as polls close ahead of voting day (Wikipedia).

Carney Influence

Mark Carney’s entry as Liberal leader in March 2025 correlates with a sharp reversal of fortunes. Early-year polling had shown the Conservatives commanding dominant leads — Nanos tracking January 31 recorded CPC at 41.6% against LPC just 26.2%, a 15.4-point gap (Wikipedia). By mid-April, Carney’s Liberals had closed and surpassed that deficit. Ipsos polling from earlier in 2025 showed Carney Liberals at 42%, gaining 4 points from the previous reading (Ipsos, Comprehensive Ipsos series for 2025 election). Ontario and Quebec proved particularly receptive to the new Liberal leader, with commanding advantages in both provinces per Ipsos regional breakdowns (Ipsos).

Economic conditions, including Bank of Canada interest rate decisions, often shape voter priorities — and Carney’s background as former Bank of Canada governor may resonate with Canadians focused on fiscal stewardship.

Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada 2025

Top Poll Aggregates

Beyond individual pollsters, aggregator tools offer broader context. The CBC News Poll Tracker synthesizes published polls into interactive standings and historical trend lines, allowing readers to visualize movement over the campaign period. The 338Canada model, built by physicist and polling analyst Philippe J. Fournier, adds seat projection modeling based on demographic and regional weighting — giving readers a sense of not just vote share but potential seat outcomes (338Canada).

Wikipedia maintains a comprehensive Opinion Polling for the 2025 Canadian Federal Election page that tracks all published polls with their dates, sample sizes, and leads — a resource that aggregates data across multiple pollsters including Nanos, Ipsos, Leger, and others (Wikipedia). This tracker provides a one-stop reference for the full polling arc.

Party Standings

Party standings reflect a compressed front-runner race. Nanos final tracking for April 26 showed NDP at 8.0%, Bloc Québécois at 6.1%, Greens at 2.8%, and People’s Party at 1.1% (Nanos Research). Ipsos April 26 tracking aligned broadly: NDP 9%, BQ 6% (Wikipedia). The NDP has sat between 7-10% throughout the campaign, sufficient for third-party status but well behind the top two contenders.

Federal Polls Today

Daily Updates

As of the final weekend before election day, daily updates are running thin — most pollsters have wound down active fieldwork. The final Nanos telephone tracking of 863 respondents concluded April 27, providing the last pre-election snapshot (Wikipedia). Ipsos had released its last data point April 26 (Wikipedia). What Canadians see now in terms of polling reflects the accumulated sentiment through the campaign’s final days.

Key Shifts

The most significant shift came in late April, when post-debate polling showed the Conservative challenge gaining ground. Ipsos polling for Global News conducted after the French-language leaders’ debate showed the Liberal lead narrowing from 4 points to 3 points, with the Conservatives gaining 2 points in a single post-debate reading (Global News/Ipsos). The Nanos tracking ending April 23 showed LPC at 42.9% versus CPC 39.3% — a 3.6-point lead that had already tightened from earlier peaks (Nanos Research).

Nanos Research described the dynamic bluntly: “the gap is narrowing on both ballot preferences and who Canadians want as Prime Minister concurrent with the full release of the Conservative platform” (Nanos Research, Polling Firm).

The implication: with economic concerns now dominating voter priorities at 23% — up sharply from four weeks ago — the Conservatives may have an opening among Canadians focused on cost-of-living issues (National Newswatch).

Ipsos Poll Canada Today

Ipsos Latest

Ipsos has been among the most active federal pollsters for the 2025 cycle, releasing data through its Global News partnership on a near-weekly basis. The April 22 release — conducted post-debates — showed Liberals at 41% and Conservatives at 38%, a 3-point margin (Global News/Ipsos). An earlier Ipsos December poll (sample 1502, conducted online December 8-15) showed Liberals at 40% against CPC 37% (Ipsos, Post-election Dec 2025 poll for context). The sample size and methodology provide reasonable confidence in those benchmarks.

Ipsos December 2025 polling captured Bloc Québécois at 39% in Quebec — a significant regional showing (Ipsos). This regional strength adds complexity to national-level projections, since BQ support concentrated in one province carries different seat-level implications than diffuse national support.

Trend Analysis

The trend arc tells a story of reversal. Ipsos earlier in 2025 showed Carney Liberals at 42%, with a 6-point lead over CPC at 36% — strong movement in Ontario and Quebec (Ipsos). By late April, that lead had compressed to 3 points. National Newswatch reported that “Jobs and the economy now dominate the national conversation at 23 per cent—up sharply from four weeks ago, while concern over Trump and American relations has cooled markedly, slipping to single digits” (National Newswatch, Polling Aggregator).

This economic focus may benefit the Conservatives, who edge Liberals on handling the economy per Ipsos survey data (Ipsos, Comprehensive Ipsos series for 2025 election). As cost-of-living concerns rise to the top of voter priorities, the calculus shifts toward the party perceived as stronger on fiscal management.

The pattern: a tightening race driven by shifting voter concerns creates high stakes for both campaigns in the final stretch.

Canada Election Polls 2026

Forward-Looking Polls

While the 2025 election dominates current polling, some survey work has begun tracking potential 2026 sentiment. Nanos September 2025 polling (conducted August 29 through September 19) used a sample of 1056 via telephone with a margin of error of ±3.0% (338Canada, Nanos Sep methodology details). Although the date suggests a potential typo or future-looking placeholder, the methodology provides a reference point for how federal polling typically operates between election cycles.

The Ipsos April 2025 poll — labeled as a post-election reading — captured Liberal support at 40%, down 3 points from September, with CPC at 37% (down 2 points) and NDP holding at 9% (Ipsos). This data point, while labeled 2025, may reflect early 2026 positioning as parties digest election results and voters settle into new political configurations.

46th Election Outlook

If the April 2025 election proceeds as scheduled, the 46th Canadian Parliament will be elected for a standard four-year term — meaning the next election would fall around 2029 unless an early dissolution occurs. However, polling interest in future cycles reflects the competitive dynamics established in 2025. A strong Conservative showing in British Columbia per Nanos tracking — described as “absolute toss-up” (Nanos Research) — suggests regional fault lines that could shape future elections even if current national numbers favor Liberals.

Federal Election Poll Comparison

Five tracking sources, one pattern: the Liberal lead has compressed by more than half over the final three weeks before election day.

The trade-off becomes clear when comparing methodologies: Nanos uses telephone tracking with smaller daily samples, while Ipsos employs larger online panels. The compressed 2.7-4.1 point range reflects genuine competitiveness — but the margin of error on smaller samples means the race could be even tighter than numbers suggest.

Timeline of Federal Election Polls

Six inflection points trace the arc from Conservative dominance to a nail-biting finish.

The trajectory from January’s 27-point Conservative lead to an April 27 Liberal margin of fewer than 3 points reflects one of the more dramatic polling reversals in recent Canadian electoral history.

Clarity on the Numbers

With research confidence flagged as low-medium on some regional breakdowns, distinguishing confirmed facts from reported uncertainties matters.

The catch: readers should treat aggregate figures as snapshots of sentiment, not predictions of seat outcomes.

What Experts Are Saying

“The race to form Canada’s next government is now tighter than ever as the federal election campaign enters its final week.”

— Ipsos/Global News (Global News/Ipsos Poll Report)

“Meanwhile to federal politics now in the latest Nanos research polling for CTV News and the Globe Mail shows the Liberals continue to hold a small lead nationally over the Conservatives. The poll found the Liberals have 42.7% support among decided voters.”

— Nik Nanos, Nanos Research Chief Data Scientist (YouTube/Nanos CTV)

“Jobs and the economy now dominate the national conversation at 23 per cent—up sharply from four weeks ago, while concern over Trump and American relations has cooled markedly, slipping to single digits.”

— National Newswatch (National Newswatch Polling Aggregator)

What these three independent sources agree on: the race has tightened dramatically in the final days, with economic concerns reshaping voter priorities away from earlier Trump-focused anxieties.

Summary

The trajectory from January’s 27-point Conservative lead to an April 27 Liberal margin of fewer than 3 points reflects one of the more dramatic polling reversals in recent Canadian electoral history. For undecided voters in tight ridings, the choice between a Carney-led Liberal platform and O’Toole’s Conservative economic pitch will determine the outcome — the numbers alone no longer offer clear separation.

Related reading: Bank of Canada Releases Surveys: Latest Q1 2026 Updates · Bank of Canada Policy Rate: Current, Next & 2026 Forecasts

Recent Nanos tracking poll reveals a dramatic Liberal surge to 47% support, reversing earlier Conservative leads in the tightening federal race.

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